A Practical Guide to Understanding the Current Political Crisis and Predicting What Will Happen

The current political situation, with the rejection of a Motion of Confidence, will lead our country to the third (early) legislative elections in just 3 years, when normally the Portuguese would go to the polls to elect their representatives in the Assembly of the Republic every 4 years (Article 171(1) of the Constitution).

As the issue is delicate and complex, we deemed it useful to provide a practical guide to understanding the political reality, in the form of Questions & Answers. 

The political crisis and what will follow, in a guide with seven topics:

What triggered the current political situation?

While the matter is recognized as having a political nature, it evidently also has a legal component.

It is the Prime Minister’s obligation to perform duties exclusively, meaning that they cannot benefit from any income beyond the salary they receive for their political position as Prime Minister (Article 2(1)(c) and Article 6(1) of Law No. 52/2019, of July 31).

What is the incompatibility in question?

There exists a company – in which the Prime Minister ceased to be a partner in 2022, but his spouse, with whom he is married under a community of property regime, remained a partner during his mandate – that receives a retainer from the company Solverde, which has the Portuguese State as a client, raising potential transparency concerns.

The incompatibility invoked by opposition parties lies in the fact that the Prime Minister could, ultimately, have benefited from a retainer paid to a company with contractual relations with the Portuguese State, posing a risk of favor due to the indirect connection to the Prime Minister.

Although the reported facts do not constitute a direct violation of the law, it seems that the Prime Minister should have referenced these facts in the declaration submitted to the Transparency Entity, as they may generate incompatibilities and impediments, which was allegedly not done (Article 2 of Organic Law No. 4/2019, of September 13).

What does the Prime Minister’s resignation imply?

The resignation of the Prime Minister results in the resignation of the Government (Article 195(1)(b) of the Constitution).

Upon the Government’s resignation, the President of the Republic has two options:

• Appoint a new Government; or

• Dissolve the Assembly of the Republic and call for early legislative elections (Articles 133(f) and (h) of the Constitution).

Note: The President of the Republic cannot dissolve the Assembly in the last six months of their mandate, which begins in June 2025, considering the next presidential elections will take place in January 2026 (Article 172(1) of the Constitution).

What distinguishes a motion of censure from a motion of confidence?

A motion of censure is a voting initiative that can be proposed by one-quarter of the Assembly of the Republic's deputies or any parliamentary group, aiming to censure the Government's actions (Article 194 of the Constitution).

A motion of confidence is a Government initiative requesting the Assembly of the Republic to vote on a declaration of confidence in its performance (Article 193 of the Constitution).

The consequence of the absolute majority approval of a motion of censure or the rejection of a motion of confidence is the Government's resignation (Articles 195(1)(c) and (f) of the Constitution).

Upon the Government’s resignation, the President of the Republic has two options:

• Appoint a new Government; or

• Dissolve the Assembly of the Republic and call for early legislative elections (Articles 133(f) and (h) of the Constitution).

Note: The President of the Republic cannot dissolve the Assembly in the last six months of their mandate, which begins in June 2025, considering the next presidential elections will take place in January 2026 (Article 172(1) of the Constitution).

What other form of intervention is available to deputies?

If the Government remains in office and deputies consider that the Prime Minister has not provided the necessary clarifications, they have the power to create a Parliamentary Inquiry Committee (CPI), endowed with investigative powers similar to those of judicial authorities (Articles 156(f), 178(5), and 180(f) of the Constitution).

The final report of the CPI does not result in the Government's resignation. Nevertheless, any facts that may generate criminal or administrative liability must be forwarded to the competent authorities for investigation. Furthermore, depending on the findings, a new motion of censure or confidence might be voted on, with the potential for a different outcome should any party change its stance towards the Government.

Regardless of the actions taken by the Prime Minister and the Assembly of the Republic, what powers does the President of the Republic have at their disposal? A.: The President of the Republic has the power to dismiss the Government if they consider it necessary to ensure the proper functioning of democratic institutions (Articles 133(g) and 195(2) of the Constitution).

If opting to dismiss the Government, the President of the Republic has two options:

• Appoint a new Government; or

• Dissolve the Assembly of the Republic and call for early legislative elections (Articles 133(e), (f), and (h) of the Constitution).

Note: The President of the Republic cannot dissolve the Assembly in the last six months of their mandate, which begins in June 2025, considering the next presidential elections will take place in January 2026 (Article 172(1) of the Constitution).

Can the judicial system conduct any investigation against the Prime Minister?

Yes, under Portuguese Criminal and Criminal Procedure Law, with the natural application of the presumption of innocence principle (Article 32(2) of the Constitution).

Members of the Government, such as the Prime Minister, do not enjoy immunity, unlike the deputies of the Assembly of the Republic (Article 157 of the Constitution).

However, judicial investigations can only address facts that may qualify as crimes defined by law, and criminal proceedings cannot interfere in matters of a political nature, as doing so would violate the principle of separation of powers between the executive (Government) and the judiciary (Courts) – Articles 2 and 111(1) of the Constitution.